You'll be using XR in 2024. And you will barely notice it.

 

Midjourney and me working on science fiction retrofuturism.

December is a nice time to make some predictions for the next year. I've got one.

By this time next year:

• You'll be using XR frequently.
• You will not blink an eyelash when coworkers show up to work meetings as avatars.

Modified Technology Adoption Cycle, Credit: Whatfix Blog.

XR is technologies and applications that involve combinations of mixed reality (MR), augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR), and virtual worlds (VWs). READ: it's not just headsets, people.

How will this happen? How will a media that's been on the fringes for 20 years suddenly move into common use?

Heather clears her throat.

Microsoft.

What?

Microsoft.

Midjourney and me: stained glass scientists working on story research.

Story time!

You know you love story time!! Here we go, kids, into the time machine. Let me transport you back to the late 1980s through the mid 1990s. The Internet as we know it now had not yet been born. Actually word processing...and it's triplet sisters, database and spreadsheet...had just been born. Folks were still adjusting. Using a word processor instead of a typewriter was optional when I completed my high school senior paper. Just 2 years later, courses in word processing, database, and spreadsheet were mandatory to graduate from college. Notice that I didn't NAME those programs. I called them their generic program names.

That's because there wasn't a dominant market player in what we now call the "office suite" of business programs. Word Perfect was known for word processing, Lotus 1-2-3 for spreadsheet and I don't remember a name for database. Google didn't have versions...because Google didn't exist.

But along came Microsoft, ready to move on office software. They dreamed of standardizing the software and bundling it. And they had a good point! An office, often staffed with "administrative assistants," could all use all 3 programs throughout their day:

• They could use word processing for their letters, memos, and agendas.
• They could use spreadsheet for basic accounting.
• They could use database for inventory control.
• And one more thing: they could afford to buy the set.

OK Heather, this doesn't prove adoption at all.

I'm not done yet.

You see, as soon as college and university professors and teachers caught on that Microsoft products were being used "in the workplace", they hustled to add learning & using the programs into their junior and senior courses (3rd and 4th years of a baccalaureate program) because

Our students need to know how to use these programs when they arrive in the workplace.

Then the freshmen and sophomore profs caught wind of this from their colleagues. Well, they are not going to be left behind! Soon, they required the learning and use of Microsoft Office products for their courses because

Our students need to know how to use these programs when they arrive in their upperclassmen courses.

Then high school teachers hear of this. Now they mandated teaching Office programs to their students because

Our students need to know how to use these programs when they arrive in college.

And further, elementary teachers hear and saw this and they felt that they too could join this because

Our students need to know how to use these programs when they arrive in the higher grades.

And just like that, you have third graders (8 year olds) using PowerPoint.*

Now at each level, Microsoft raked in the cash. The programs don't have to improve much to sell new iterations when the reason to buy is because 'the folks above you expect that you'll know this!'

What This Means

So what does this mean?

Microsoft didn't sell PowerPoint to 8 year olds, yo.

They sold it to the office, the workplace, the users that could afford it. Back pressure, as I call it, pushes the use (and purchasing) into further, deeper markets, like education.

And in 2024, Microsoft is going to put you in XR in the office starting right here.

Something that LOOKS Zoom-like, but with a few avatars.

Just as easily as you click on a link to go into a Zoom meeting, you'll go into XR for work meetings using their Mesh for Teams.

On campus, the professors will post WebXR links as where to meet for office hours.

Home office workers that were always shy about going on camera, will join with avatars. I would be remiss if I didn't point out that there will be INCREASED WORK OPPORTUNITIES for those with visible disabilities because now, if they don't want to show themselves on camera, they won't have to (ever).

Knowing Microsoft, they are already beta testing this fully.

I caught some fine print on Mesh:

To ensure a seamless experience, it's essential to note that your users must have licenses for one of the following: Teams Essentials, Microsoft 365 Business Basic, Microsoft 365 Business Standard, Microsoft 365 Business Premium, Microsoft 365 E3/E5, or Office 365 E1/E3/E5.

I scanned that and said "Looks expensive." And that's the point. Sell XR to those that can afford it, not to those that cannot.

So let's feel this out with images:

Cool.

We are in the right ballpark. This looks like Zoom. But reaching out and touching to go immersive? No, not mainstream in 2024. That will wait for later.

Warmer

One click entry. YES. Bye bye bloated software downloads. (Yeah, you know who you are.) XR has to be one click entry to be easy to enter. It has to be as easy as sending someone a Zoom link.

Warmer still

At least this shows on-camera people AND avatars in the same meeting. You get 4 points out of 10. We are getting closer, although it's a tiny bit DERP to relegate the on-camera people to boxes on a wall.

Distinctly better

Better. Why? Small groups. No one wants to feel like an idiot and even less so at work. Small groups entering the metaverse with low stakes....that's the way to ease into this. Two friends can forgive you if you can't find your microphone button or if you don't know how to walk. 200 people at a Town Hall will vilify you and you'll find yourself ex-employed in 6 months.

Further:

What should these work spaces look like since they will be fully customizable?

Example use case from FrameVR

Another example use case called Team Social from Mesh

Office use case with Mozilla Hubs

Oy. Too much diversity here (in a good way!) to comment. Just remember that humans will be human, in VR as out. People are going to keep being people. So they'll probably want chairs, doors, and normal office stuff.

Should anyone at work (in general) learn programming in Unity, Unreal, or Blender? Unless you really want to, no. I disagreed head-to-head with Microsoft and some Developers here. Manually creating assets in VR is a niche discipline on the edge of getting swallowed by AI. You will not NEED this to fully join the business world in XR. And if you'd like to know the REALLY ninja move to make: XR is not about the tech, it's about the people. I'm a broken record on that. People will be people if they are standing on top of a virtual pin or standing on a virtual Moon. So focus on the people, not the space.

Disclaimers

None of this article is meant to be praise for Microsoft. No. [Disclosure: I do not work for Microsoft. I haven't used Teams consistently in 5 years. I'm not selling any particular XR office provider. I have opinions on some good and terrible ones out there.] Microsoft has the ability to move the market in the way, via business, that Meta has not been able to. To be fair, Meta looks like they are always asking the gamer kid if they can hang out with them...so I don't think Meta has been serious about the business market. At least, Meta is coming in through the side door to business, not the main door. And that's OK.

Comments to this article that tout companies that will sell you services RELATED to XR office or workspaces will be deleted. You'll notice none of my examples required any special equipment or downloads. Hint: #WebXR

And before anyone responds that Mesh started in year X and avatars can already be made, and some companies have already been having their meetings in XR, yada yada yada, I gotta say:

All design moves in cycles. It's very normal that something we'll see in 2024 has historical design roots from before 2024. So keep your knickers on. I'm not claiming this is NEW.

My point is that your Luddite boss that just this year figured out how to 'share screens' in Zoom without much drama will be much more comfortable when more of the team shows up as avatars. You'll no longer be the weird kid. And this will blow over quietly...and "entering the metaverse" will as easy as clicking on a link.

Prophecy over.

Stay safe, fellow babies. On to 2024!

*Interestingly, NOT a biblical sign of the Apocalypse, as much as I thought that when I met a 3rd grader making a PowerPoint.

Midjourney and me, in our one-time abstract phase.

#XR #Microsoft #Mesh #Teams #2024 #Prediction #Office #Programs #History #DesignCycles #Design #VR #VirtualOfficeMeetings #VirtualOfficeParties #VirtualConferences #VirtualProductDemos

Simultaneously posted to my LinkedIn account here: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/youll-using-xr-2024-you-barely-notice-heather-dodds-ph-d--exhsc